Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 76176.813331 80491.095036 84810.118295 89455.220332 94306.626265 99220.869449 104571.944109
2025-11-30 69311.282218 75906.844879 82699.376062 90208.003084 98265.950711 106644.050057 116003.902866
2025-12-07 64445.381948 72606.522730 81200.784964 90906.184494 101541.621410 112821.637024 125669.663909
2025-12-14 60228.163335 69505.076441 79459.720621 90903.995532 103664.184570 117420.766111 133338.967249
2025-12-21 56963.358176 67137.289890 78235.229985 91193.018151 105857.880585 121890.298783 140692.357049
2025-12-28 54931.362497 65960.228718 78166.076923 92611.976623 109174.524550 127501.668119 149244.116493
2026-01-04 52941.382120 64677.852926 77841.508822 93616.111925 111917.544711 132392.192525 156936.709608
2026-01-11 50974.542903 63295.554373 77289.181527 94254.329838 114154.689327 136644.929881 163865.317296
2026-01-18 48928.911995 61708.697201 76398.176288 94404.570873 115747.078183 140098.301571 169836.966146
2026-01-25 47115.849671 60307.403876 75643.097472 94638.218273 117373.359501 143545.729556 175776.738810
2026-02-01 45284.989142 58801.012639 74687.123260 94562.001262 118573.521511 146451.296553 181056.429312
2026-02-08 44062.214661 57979.529303 74504.101073 95369.352627 120794.525610 150543.930866 187740.694652
2026-02-15 42410.337619 56581.764645 73585.693347 95261.357321 121907.659788 153334.764853 192920.346461
2026-02-22 41563.841230 56155.968139 73832.962916 96561.816357 124726.022019 158182.016567 200603.311558
2026-03-01 40558.003329 55485.598961 73740.708325 97413.014855 126976.064224 162340.318558 207471.698053
2026-03-08 39224.212525 54345.922528 73016.375048 97435.641022 128171.779108 165198.115255 212756.552612
2026-03-15 38102.832184 53438.884517 72548.412367 97747.073098 129701.661925 168452.449467 218530.234727
2026-03-22 37583.881721 53293.738226 73031.440330 99250.127603 132720.851341 173551.575549 226604.310151
2026-03-29 36902.875200 52907.708772 73182.817488 100313.045041 135177.835309 177959.708608 233846.481598
2026-04-05 36092.236733 52320.222588 73048.643247 100988.451932 137131.065946 181739.918547 240323.131479
2026-04-12 35105.581725 51464.288822 72535.515605 101147.439932 138406.050069 184662.082252 245732.137524
2026-04-19 34202.584350 50692.826750 72107.559453 101394.667187 139778.359777 187700.952835 251295.880826
2026-04-26 33209.973602 49768.556851 71449.417936 101314.022659 140706.938479 190167.304758 256137.990833